The report is based on a surge of activity following a U.S. naval blockade in early 2026. According to JFeed and The Maritime Executive, Hamid Hosseini of Iran’s Oil Exporters Union confirmed to the Wall Street Journal that Tehran is utilizing rail links that have been operational since May 2025. These trains can reach China in 12–15 days, which is faster than the 30–40 days by sea, but they cannot match the massive volume of VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) tankers.
Regarding the "40 percent" claim, no official or primary source provided in the evidence supports this specific number. In 2025, Iran exported roughly 1.38 million barrels per day to China; moving 40% of that by rail would require a logistical feat far beyond the current capacity of the North-South International Transport Corridor.
Furthermore, while the social media post mentions food coming through the "caucus mountains" (likely referring to the Caucasus), evidence suggests the primary land activity is actually at the Bazargan crossing on the Turkish border, where over 200,000 trucks transit annually. Relations with Azerbaijan (in the Caucasus) remain tense, and rail routes through that region are currently described as inoperative or under-developed. The verdict is mixed because the intent and method (rail/land) are supported by reporting, but the scale and specific geography (40% and Caucasus food routes) lack definitive proof.
Source quality: The evidence includes reports from April 2026 citing a Wall Street Journal investigation and statements from Iranian trade officials. While the primary WSJ article text isn't fully provided, secondary reporting from JFeed and Maritime Executive provides consistent details on the rail routes and the blockade context.
