Supported

Published fact-check

Dutch Intelligence Reports 1.2 Million Russian and 500,000 Ukrainian Casualties

Claim checked

“Dutch intelligence has said Russia has lost over 1.2 million solders in Ukraine, with Ukraine losing over 500,000.”

Published

Verdict

Supported

The Dutch military intelligence service (MIVD) released its 2026 annual report stating that Russia has suffered approximately 1.2 million permanent casualties since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. This figure includes more than 500,000 deaths. The report also estimated that Ukraine has suffered approximately 500,000 permanent casualties.

3 reviewed sources behind this verdict.

Reasoning

The claim accurately reflects the findings of the Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) annual report published in April 2026. Reports from Defense News and LIGA.net confirm that the MIVD provided these specific casualty estimates. The intelligence service noted that despite these massive losses, Russia is actively expanding its armed forces and could be ready for a regional conflict with NATO within a year after hostilities in Ukraine end.

Source quality: The evidence includes detailed reporting from Defense News on the specific MIVD annual report, providing the exact figures mentioned in the claim.

Key checks

  • Russian Casualty Figures: The MIVD report specifies that Russia has suffered about 1.2 million permanent casualties, which includes over 500,000 deaths since 2022.

  • Ukrainian Casualty Figures: The report estimates Ukrainian permanent casualties at approximately half a million (500,000).

  • Source of Intelligence: The data originates from the MIVD (Dutch Military Intelligence and Security Service) annual report released on April 21, 2026.

Confidence

High